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Is There A 49% Discount in the Price of Eneraqua Technologies plc (LON:ETP)?


Key Insights

VIDEO: Introduction to Eneraqua Technologies (ETP)
PIWORLD
  • Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, Eneraqua Technologies fair value estimate is UK£0.77

  • Eneraqua Technologies' UK£0.39 share price signals that it might be 49% undervalued

Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of Eneraqua Technologies plc (LON:ETP) by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to today's value. We will use the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model on this occasion. Before you think you won't be able to understand it, just read on! It's actually much less complex than you'd imagine.

We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.

View our latest analysis for Eneraqua Technologies

The Model

VIDEO: Eneraqua Technologies (ETP) FY23 overview - May 23
PIWORLD

We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

VIDEO: Eneraqua Technologies (ETP) interim results overview - October 2022
PIWORLD

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

Levered FCF (£, Millions)

UK£4.99m

UK£2.86m

UK£2.45m

UK£2.22m

UK£2.09m

UK£2.00m

UK£1.96m

UK£1.93m

UK£1.93m

UK£1.93m

Growth Rate Estimate Source

Analyst x2

Analyst x2

Analyst x1

Est @ -9.38%

Est @ -6.15%

Est @ -3.89%

Est @ -2.31%

Est @ -1.20%

Est @ -0.43%

Est @ 0.11%

Present Value (£, Millions) Discounted @ 9.8%

UK£4.5

UK£2.4

UK£1.9

UK£1.5

UK£1.3

UK£1.1

UK£1.0

UK£0.9

UK£0.8

UK£0.8

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = UK£16m

We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 1.4%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 9.8%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2033 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = UK£1.9m× (1 + 1.4%) ÷ (9.8%– 1.4%) = UK£23m

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= UK£23m÷ ( 1 + 9.8%)10= UK£9.2m

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is UK£25m. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of UK£0.4, the company appears quite undervalued at a 49% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.

dcf

The Assumptions

VIDEO: Eneraqua Technologies (ETP) interim results presentation - October 2022
PIWORLD

The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Eneraqua Technologies as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 9.8%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.422. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for Eneraqua Technologies

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Everything Money

Strength

  • Earnings growth over the past year exceeded the industry.

  • Debt is not viewed as a risk.

  • Dividends are covered by earnings and cash flows.

Weakness

  • Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Building market.

Opportunity

  • Annual revenue is forecast to grow faster than the British market.

  • Trading below our estimate of fair value by more than 20%.

  • Significant insider buying over the past 3 months.

Threat

  • No apparent threats visible for ETP.

Moving On:

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Proactive Investors

Although the valuation of a company is important, it shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. Can we work out why the company is trading at a discount to intrinsic value? For Eneraqua Technologies, we've compiled three important elements you should consider:

  1. Risks: For instance, we've identified 3 warning signs for Eneraqua Technologies (1 can't be ignored) you should be aware of.

  2. Management:Have insiders been ramping up their shares to take advantage of the market's sentiment for ETP's future outlook? Check out our management and board analysis with insights on CEO compensation and governance factors.

  3. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the AIM every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Sources


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