- Bitcoin price might benefit from traders front-running the halving owing to other factors, but it is still six months away.
- In the past three years, BTC has shown promise of a rally right after halving events.
- The hype train is so intense that it has managed to draw the attention of some big wallet whales.
Bitcoin price might be doing well for itself, which is evident in the recent moves of the whale addresses. However, the cryptocurrency is still likely to continue its uptrend thanks to certain factors.
These factors include the hype of spot Bitcoin ETF approvals by the Securities & Exchange Commission (SEC), the potential Quantitative Easing, as well as the upcoming halving event. However, what many investors are missing is how their optimism could get crushed.
Daily Digest Market Movers: Bitcoin price may not impress until 2025
Bitcoin price trading near $34,500, boosted by the mid-October rally, has increased the hopes of many investors that a bull market is on the verge of beginning. This sentiment is being fueled by a couple of other factors as well. However, while green candlesticks are in BTC’s future, they might take a bit longer to arrive than investors are anticipating.
The general narrative is that Bitcoin price shoots up in the leadup to a halving and/or right after it. While that stands true for a short-term outlook, the towering gains that investors are expecting will likely arrive a year later. This is based on historical observations wherein a top was formed a year after the first halving and 18 months after the second and third.
Following the first halving in BTC’s history, the top was noted after Bitcoin price increased by 539X. Similarly, tops for the second and third halving were observed after BTC shot up by 112X and 21X, respectively.
Bitcoin growth post-halving
Such growth cannot be expected this time around, given the present value of Bitcoin. Even a 21X growth would place the price of 1 BTC at $724,500. At the most, the top would be seen as the cryptocurrency marking fresh all-time highs for which Bitcoin would need to note an almost 90% rally. This may not take place until mid-2025 since new all-time highs normally come more than two years after market bottoms.
But the optimism of Bitcoin price breaching $40,000 is pushing investors toward acting bullish. This sentiment is observed among large wallet holders like whales, too. On-chain data shows that over the past week, Bitcoin whales have added 18,924 BTC to their wallets, worth close to $652 million at the moment.
Bitcoin whale net flows
Thus, bullish actions might act as a catalyst for the cryptocurrency going forward.
Technical Analysis: Bitcoin price short-term outlook
Bitcoin price hovering above the crucial support level of $33,901 is exhibiting mixed signals at the moment. While the general consensus following the 35% rally over the past two months is that BTC might see some sideways movement or correction until the market cools down, the sentiment is highly bullish, perching on the probability of spot Bitcoin ETF approvals.
This development could bolster a rise to $36,833, the reclaiming of which as a support level could send Bitcoin price off toward $40,000.
BTC/USD 1-day chart
But if this support line is invalidated, BTC could see a drawdown to $31,507. Falling through this line would invalidate the bearish thesis and result in Bitcoin price dropping below $30,000 to tag the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $29,629.
An Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) is an investment vehicle or an index that tracks the price of an underlying asset. ETFs can not only track a single asset, but a group of assets and sectors. For example, a Bitcoin ETF tracks Bitcoin’s price. ETF is a tool used by investors to gain exposure to a certain asset.
Yes. The first Bitcoin futures ETF in the US was approved by the US Securities & Exchange Commission in October 2021. A total of seven Bitcoin futures ETFs have been approved, with more than 20 still waiting for the regulator’s permission. The SEC says that the cryptocurrency industry is new and subject to manipulation, which is why it has been delaying crypto-related futures ETFs for the last few years.
Bitcoin spot ETF has been approved outside the US, but the SEC is yet to approve one in the country. After BlackRock filed for a Bitcoin spot ETF on June 15, the interest surrounding crypto ETFs has been renewed. Grayscale – whose application for a Bitcoin spot ETF was initially rejected by the SEC – got a victory in court, forcing the US regulator to review its proposal again. The SEC’s loss in this lawsuit has fueled hopes that a Bitcoin spot ETF might be approved by the end of the year.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.